I was Right!, Bow Down and a Very Dark Thought

I was right! The corona virus data from China is wrong! I knew it! All of my years of looking at data and looking for trends proved me right! And a whole bunch of other people, too, as the New York Times reported this morning:

China Created a Fail-Safe System to Track Contagions. It Failed.

"After doctors in Wuhan began treating clusters of patients stricken with a mysterious pneumonia in December, the reporting was supposed to have been automatic. Instead, hospitals deferred to local health officials who, over a political aversion to sharing bad news, withheld information about cases from the national reporting system — keeping Beijing in the dark and delaying the response.

The central health authorities first learned about the outbreak not from the reporting system but after unknown whistle-blowers leaked two internal documents online."

In short, the doctors reported the data to local officials who were (my wording) afraid to share the data with the Chinese government because it wasn't good news. Also, the situation had to be worse than the data suggests. A country of 1.4 billion people does not go into lock down because a few hundred people  died in a few weeks. This article looks at the outbreak--I am more concerned about the follow-up: If we can't trust the data in the early stages, how can we trust their data that the cases have miraculously dried up, when Italy, Spain and the US are seeing far more cases and a greater rate of death for those who tested positive?

From March 16, 2020

From March 30, 2020

I know COVID was in China since December, and I know they had a major lock-down, but how could have had so few cases when the rest of the world was ramping up? Did it really die down that fast? I can't believe that their numbers would stall so dramatically. I hope to god I am wrong.

In less depressing news...the State of Washington is kicking ass! Bow Down!

1. Social Distancing works! Boo-yah! Washington's spread of COVID is slowing. Maybe some it is because Seattleites aren't the most warm and welcoming...

Since college basketball is offline due to the virus, maybe we need brackets to track the virus by state? The winning state will be the one who has the lowest rates of infection and death. I think Ohio will win because their governor shut down the whole state the first time someone sneezed. Tell Urban Meyer to lead the cause and they have to beat Michigan and watch the Buckeye State have the least amount of illness in the world.

2. Congrats to Mercer Island High School student Avi Schiffmann for making the COVID-19 tracking website ncov2019.live.

3. Dr. Helen Chu is another amazing Washingtonian. She was the first to discover COVID-19 in the U.S.

While Washington is my adopted home, I have to give a shout out to my fellow NU alums who are keeping us entertained during this epic crisis. What a Herculean task to find humor in this challenging time where the best thing most of us can do to help is nothing. Yay Stephen Colbert and Seth Meyer, with a special cheer for Julia-Louis Dreyfus who appeared on Jimmy Kimmel. (I think Jimmy Kimmel has a massive crush on JLD based on this interview. He looks like a love-struck schoolboy, bless his heart.) I also nominate Trevor Noah to be an honorary Northwestern Alum. I love his interview with Dr. Tony Fauci.

Here is my dark thought: the major impact of Corona on Seattle is suppose to start around April 7.

Which means there are a whole bunch of people walking around around right now feeling fine who in a week will find themselves very, very ill. Some will not recover.

"Jesus, Lauren. That is really, really dark. Why are you sharing this? I am going to stop reading your blog!" is what I thought to myself.

But isn't that life? We don't know what is around the corner. It could be love. It could be death. We don't know and there are some many things over which we have no control. I guess the best I have is eat like you are going to live forever (that body has to last a long time) and love like you are going to die tomorrow.